Beyond Regime Change: Why Iran Requires Structural Transformation, Not Cosmetic Regime Change

By Umud Duzgun

February 01, 2026

Iran’s political crisis is commonly framed as a struggle between dictatorship and democracy. This framing, while emotionally compelling, is analytically incomplete and ultimately misleading. The core problem is not merely the Islamic Republic, but the structural architecture of the Iranian state itself — a centralized system built on Persianism and Shiism and sustained for more than a century through coercion rather than consent.

Decades of mass protest have demonstrated extraordinary courage, yet they have consistently failed to produce systemic change. Reformist politics have repeatedly collapsed under institutional veto power. Meanwhile, proposals advocating military strikes, regime decapitation, or externally imposed successor governments remain dangerously simplistic. The reality is stark: regime change alone will not resolve Iran’s crisis.

A Blocked Transition, Not an Organic Democratic Failure

Iran was not historically incapable of democratic development. Its constitutional trajectory was interrupted by British and Russian intervention, which weakened reformist elites and constitutional institutions, paving the way for the consolidation of an authoritarian state between 1921 and 1925.

This was not merely a regime change but a structural transformation of the state — from a quasi-federal Qajar system into a centralized Pahlavi monarchy. Rather than deepening constitutionalism, the Pahlavi regime dismantled parliamentary politics, suppressed the press and political parties, and redesigned the state into a Persian-centric, unitary structure hostile to political pluralism, linguistic diversity, and non-Persian identities.

The Islamic Republic did not dismantle this architecture; it inherited, institutionalized, and intensified it.

Why Reform Is Structurally Impossible

The Islamic Republic is not structurally reformable because it’s survival depends on centralized authority, ideological conformity, linguistic suppression, and coercive assimilation. These are not policy failures or correctable errors; they are foundational requirements of the state itself. Any genuine democratization would necessarily dismantle the very mechanisms through which power is exercised, rendering reformist discourse internally contradictory rather than merely ineffective.

More critically, even the removal of the Islamic Republic would not automatically produce democracy. The authoritarian logic of the Iranian state predates the current regime and has persisted for over a century. Any post–Islamic Republic government operating within the same structural framework — whether nominally republican secular or monarchist — would likely reproduce authoritarianism under a different vocabulary, remaining Persianist, Shiite-centric, and hostile to non-Persian nations and non-Shiite communities.

The Myth of a Unified Democratic Iran

Iran is not a homogeneous nation-state but a multinational political entity governed through a Persian-centric and Shiite-centric state structure. Turks, Kurds, Arabs, Baluchis, and other non-Persian peoples constitute a substantial portion — indeed a demographic majority — of the population, yet they have been systematically excluded from equal political participation and meaningful access to state power.

Attempts to democratize Iran without transforming this structural foundation — and without credible security guarantees, enforceable institutional safeguards, or the emergence of genuinely democratic elites within a functioning political society — inevitably reproduce inequality through electoral mechanisms cloaked in democratic rhetoric. Under such conditions, elections serve less as instruments of emancipation than as tools for the managed reproduction of existing hierarchies.

Federalism, often promoted by opposition groups as a remedy, cannot resolve this contradiction in isolation. Within a deeply centralized and historically hierarchical political culture, federalism risks devolving into mere administrative decentralization, lacking substantive redistribution of power, sovereignty, or genuine recognition of national plurality. Rather than dismantling structures of domination, it may instead entrench them under a new institutional label.

Iran, therefore, cannot be understood as a unified democratic nation-state. It is a multinational political space governed through a centralized and vertically hierarchical system. Any project of democratization that does not fundamentally restructure the state itself is destined to replicate inequality rather than overcome it.

State Identity: Persianism and Shiism as Structural Foundations

The identity of the modern Iranian state has been built upon the dual pillars of Persianism and Shiism. This configuration did not begin with the Islamic Republic; it was institutionalized during the Pahlavi era and continues today. While the relative balance between Persian nationalism and religious ideology has shifted over time, the exclusionary logic has remained constant.

Language bans, cultural assimilation, discrimination against non-Persian peoples, and the suppression of alternative identities are not aberrations but systemic features. Even in exile, many Iranian elites reproduce authoritarian norms, having internalized them through decades of institutionalized tyranny. This legacy makes the emergence of a genuinely pluralistic democratic state within Iran’s existing framework highly unlikely.

 Why Military Solutions Would Fail

Some policymakers advocate limited military intervention or “surgical strikes” as a means of weakening or collapsing the regime. This approach ignores Iran’s internal national fractures. Military decapitation would fragment power, empower armed militias, intensify ethnic tensions, and risk civil war. Attempts to restore the Pahlavi monarchy — or impose any Persian-centric successor regime — would almost certainly provoke prolonged instability.

The Iraq model of foreign occupation is neither realistic nor desirable. It would generate resistance rather than legitimacy and impose immense human and political costs.

The Soviet Precedent: A Viable and Realistic Alternative

A negotiated, Soviet-style transformation offers a more plausible and humane alternative to violent state collapse. Applied to Iran, such a process would require international mediation, formal recognition of Iran as a multinational political space, and internationally supervised referenda on self-determination, followed by negotiated borders and successor institutions. Political legitimacy would emerge from consent rather than coercion.

The dissolution of the Soviet Union was not chaos by default. Compared to the outcomes in Iraq, Syria, or Libya, it proved less violent, less costly, and more stable, replacing enforced unity with negotiated separation. If Iran’s centralized system collapses, multiple nations will inevitably seek independence. This is not a threat but a political reality. The decisive question is not whether fragmentation occurs, but whether it is managed through negotiation or descends into conflict. Only the former makes a peaceful transition possible.

Implications for U.S. and International Policymakers

For Washington, betting on the preservation of a centralized Iranian state may be as risky as betting on its disintegration. Non-Persian peoples do not seek a transition from a Shiite-centric dictatorship to a Persian-centric nationalist one. Any externally imposed or Persian-oriented successor government would almost certainly trigger long-term conflict.

A serious reassessment is required — one that acknowledges Iran’s demographic realities and consults all constituent nations equally. The Soviet precedent of 1989–1991 demonstrates that negotiated disintegration, referenda, and internationally supervised transitions can be both cost-effective and stabilizing.

Regional and Geopolitical Dimensions

Iran’s crisis cannot be separated from broader geopolitical rivalries involving the United States, Europe, Russia, China, Israel, Turkey, and Arab states. Competing interests have often converged around preserving Iran’s centralized structure for strategic convenience. Yet maintaining an artificial unity has repeatedly produced repression, revolt, and regional instability.

After Iran: Uneven Democracy and Post-Imperial Transition

The post-Iranian transition is unlikely to be dramatic or uniform, but it may prove more manageable and less violent than commonly assumed. The experiences of the fifteen post-Soviet states and the seven successor states of Yugoslavia suggest that political fragmentation does not inherently lead to chaos. No successor state emerging from Iran will instantly become a Western liberal democracy. Some will adopt semi-democratic or nationalist systems; others will struggle. Yet historically, smaller self-governing states tend to be more accountable, less imperial, and more reformable than large multinational authoritarian empires.

Among these potential successor states, South Azerbaijan possesses comparatively stronger democratic prospects due to its historical experience of governance, participation in constitutional politics, cultural proximity to democratic models in Turkey, and the living transitional example of North Azerbaijan.

Paradoxically, only through the dissolution of the Iranian state can Persian society itself escape the cycle of authoritarian reproduction. A century-long obsession with preserving territorial integrity at all costs has produced neither stability nor democracy, but recurring repression and revolt. The real choice is not between unity and chaos, but between coercion and consent.

Iran’s future therefore does not lie in regime change alone, but in structural transformation. The Soviet precedent demonstrates that dismantling a forced political union through negotiation is not a radical project — it is a pragmatic.

Conclusion

If the international community continues to prioritize Iran’s territorial integrity over the rights of its peoples, it will perpetuate authoritarianism and recurring rebellion. A negotiated, Soviet-style structural transformation offers a more realistic, less violent, and ultimately more democratic path forward.

Iran’s future does not lie in regime change alone, but in the reconfiguration of political authority itself. Only through the self-determination of its constituent nations can lasting peace, political legitimacy, and democratic governance emerge. The decisive choice is not between unity and chaos, but between coercion and consent. 

 Opinion Piece: By Umud Duzgun

Iran’ s Protests and the Unknown Outlook

A Position of Responsibility in a Time of Manufactured Alternatives

Given the current developments inside Iran, some friends have encouraged me to express my views publicly — either through television appearances, which I have long boycotted, or through new articles. I have chosen not to do so, not out of indifference, but for concrete and well-considered reasons. These include the absence of a credible and independent platform, the lack of meaningful support, and the erosion of genuine influence within the leadership of protest movements inside Azerbaijan.

At the same time, my position has never changed on a fundamental point: Azerbaijanis must resist the Iranian regime and bring their collective national will into the public sphere with their own slogans, priorities, and demands. Except in cases where demonstrations in Tabriz and other Azerbaijani cities were hijacked or manipulated by Persian-centric forces, I have consistently supported protest, resistance, and participation as historical necessities.

However, today’s conditions are far more complex and dangerous. The trajectory of protests is increasingly being shaped — directly or indirectly — by the regime itself, in parallel with the political rehabilitation of Reza Pahlavi through wealthy networks and satellite media. This circle includes influential figures with reformist ties to the regime and a deeply entrenched pan-Persian ideology that is hostile to Turks, Arabs, and other non-Persian nations. Replacing the current dictatorship with a restored version of the former one would not serve the people of Iran; on the contrary, it would objectively benefit the Islamic Republic by reproducing the same structures of exclusion and repression under a different banner.

History is unequivocal on one point: without Azerbaijani participation and uprising, no revolutionary movement in Iran has ever succeeded. In this contradictory moment, Azerbaijan’s silence works in the regime’s favor. Yet participation under imposed leadership or hijacked symbolism would be equally destructive. While there is a growing risk that Azerbaijani mobilization could be absorbed or neutralized by the Pahlavi project — a process in which the regime itself appears to play a covert role — it must also be stated clearly that South Azerbaijanis harbor deep resentment toward the Pahlavi family and its legacy of dictatorship.

Reza Pahlavi has no genuine social base inside Iran. His visibility stems not from popular legitimacy but from financial resources, constant promotion by satellite media, and support from limited circles within the U.S. Congress and government. Israel’s open endorsement and Washington’s implicit backing of a figure so widely rejected inside Iran only deepen mistrust. Similarly alarming is the continued support by some American political actors for the Mujahedin-e-Khalq — an organization associated with violence, collaboration with Saddam Hussein, and sectarian isolation, and one that lacks credibility even among Persian speakers.

History shows that imposing hated and illegitimate alternatives on a society leads not to stability, but to uncontrollable civil war. Any externally engineered plan — whether framed as a “Delta model” or a transactional deal between foreign powers and internal elites — would collapse within weeks. Its consequences would be catastrophic: regional escalation involving Russia, Turkey, and Arab states; inter-ethnic conflict; and violent power struggles within Iran itself.

As I argued in an article written in 1997, the least costly and most realistic path forward is not regime replacement but regime collapse — similar to the dissolution of the Soviet Union. This would entail the disintegration of Iran’s centralized power structure, followed by the peaceful reorganization of regions along national and ethnic lines and the negotiated declaration of independence by new political entities. While far from ideal, this scenario offers the greatest chance to reduce mass bloodshed and prevent prolonged civil war.

After forty-eight years of struggle, experience has revealed many blind spots that policymakers continue to ignore. I believe these insights could still be of value to serious research centers and decision-makers, should there be genuine interest in preventing catastrophe rather than managing chaos. Until such space exists, I choose to focus on writing, documentation, and intellectual work — quietly, responsibly, and without contributing to illusions that history has already discredited.

Umud Düzgün

January 7, 2026

 

The Culture of Defeat Framed as Victory

 in the Iranian (Persian) Mindset

by Umud Duzgun

July 17/2025

Iranian political and cultural discourse exhibits a persistent phenomenon that can be described as the transmutation of historical defeat into symbolic or moral victory. This psychological and rhetorical maneuver—deeply embedded in both Shi‘a religious mythology and Persian nationalist ideology—enables systemic failures to be interpreted as triumphs of faith, dignity, or moral superiority. Whether in the context of military setbacks, international isolation, or even football losses, this defeat-as-victory mindset operates as a cultural survival mechanism and a tool of political control.

I. Two Foundations of the Defeat-as-Victory Narrative

This narrative is based on historical and ideological foundations:

1. Preserving False Pride through Historical Reframing

Iran’s historical record is marked more by military defeats than decisive victories. From ancient times through the modern era, Iran has suffered major losses against foreign powers:

• Defeat by Alexander the Great (4th century BCE)

• Defeat by Arab (Battle of Qadisiyah- 7th century AD)

• Defeat by Mongol (13th century)

• Defeat by Ottoman Empire (battle of Chaldiran - 1514)

• Defeat by Russia (1804–13 and 1826–28) 

• Defeat by allied forces; Britain and Russian( August 1941):

Iran’s pattern of brittle military power was starkly revealed during World War II. After the Pahlavi government flirted with Pan-Aryan ideology and lent support to Hitler’s fascism, Britain and the Soviet Union launched a surprise invasion in August 1941. Reza Shah’s army collapsed within twenty-four hours. The present-day Iranian military still rests on the same foundation of personal loyalty established by Reza Shah, a structure that remains fragile. Hitler had lauded Iranians as part of the “Aryan Race” and in March 1935 Reza Pahlavi, following Nazi advice, officially replaced the country’s name “Persia” with “Iran.” Only months later, in September 1935, the Nazi regime enacted the Nuremberg Laws — infamous anti-Semitic statutes that exposed the darker implications of the ideology Iran had courted.

Despite this consistent pattern of defeat, Iranian historiography and popular discourse tend to reframe such events as outcomes of treachery, moral superiority, or foreign conspiracy rather than strategic miscalculations or institutional failure. The goal of these rewritings is to inflate false civilizational pride even in the face of objective collapse. 

The only substantial military successes often cited—those under Nader Shah Afshar, a Turkic military genius—are notable exceptions in an otherwise continuous arc of failure. But even these are attributed more to his unique leadership than to the Persian state’s structural capability.

2. Shu‘ubi-Shi‘a Ideological Reversal of Victory and Defeat

At the theological core of this cultural psyche lies the Shi‘a doctrine of martyrdom, particularly centered on the Battle of Karbala in 680 CE. Imam Hussein’s death at the hands of the Umayyad army was a devastating defeat, but it was recast in Shi‘a theology as a spiritual victory—a righteous stand against tyranny. Over time, this defeat became the defining symbol of Shi‘a identity: an eternal, sacred martyrdom that bestows moral supremacy.

This theology of redemptive suffering found a powerful cultural echo in the Shu‘ubiyyah movement—a Persian nationalist current that emerged in response to Arab domination. Following their defeat, Persian elites allied themselves with the Shi‘a opposition to the Umayyads, not purely for theological reasons, but as a vehicle for reclaiming and consolidating a humiliated Persian nationalism under the guise of Shiism. In this synthesis, Shiism served as a vehicle to sacralize Iran’s historical (Cultual, political and military) defeats, while simultaneously reinforcing a Persian-centric pride, expressed through themes of martyrdom and religious victimhood.

Thus, defeat becomes a virtue, and martyrdom becomes a form of civilizational affirmation.

3. Pre-Islamic Foundations: The Shahnameh and the Epic Culture of Heroic Defeat

Long before the rise of Shi‘ism, however, the cultural logic of transforming defeat into moral triumph was already embedded in the Persian epic tradition. Ferdowsi’s Shahnameh — though written in the Islamic era — draws heavily on pre-Islamic mytho-historical narratives that glorify heroic death as the ultimate expression of nobility and loyalty.

In Shahnameh:

• The fall of heroes is portrayed not as failure but as the fulfillment of destiny.
• Death becomes a dignified transition rather than a loss, captured in lines such as:
• “jahān yādgār ast o mā raftanī” — “The world is a memory, and we are those who must depart.”
• “cho ārām nagah mīdārad be sarāy” — “Let him rest; he has gone to another dwelling.”

This ethos is reinforced by admonitions to grieving relatives:
 “jāy-e in hameh bāng o faryād nīst” — 
 “This is no place for shouting and lamentation.”

The meaning is unmistakable:
 grief must not disrupt the political order; heroic sacrifice is the expected price of loyalty.

Through this epic worldview, even the collapse of legendary dynasties — such as the fall of Jamshid — or the historical defeat of the Sasanian Empire, becomes part of a cosmic moral narrative rather than a political catastrophe. Persian identity learned to reinterpret imperial failure as a testament to endurance and cultural grandeur.

This pre-Islamic tradition created a powerful psychological template. It allowed later Shi‘a martyrology — and eventually the Shi‘a-Shu‘ubi ideological synthesis — to sacralize political defeat, elevate national catastrophe into moral triumph, and transform historical collapse into a narrative of civilizational virtue.

II. Modern Manifestations: Reframing Loss as Triumph

This ideological framework is far from historical nostalgia. It actively shapes modern Iranian political rhetoric, media discourse, and public perception, manifesting across military, diplomatic, and cultural domains.

The Strategic Defeat of Iran: The Consequences of the Twelve-Day War (June 13-24, 2025)

A series of targeted Israeli strikes against Iran-backed forces across the Middle East critically degraded Iran's proxy network, setting the stage for a direct military confrontation. This escalation culminated in the Twelve-Day War (June 13-24, 2025), a high-intensity conflict involving Iran, Israel, and the United States. The war resulted in over 1,100 casualties, including the elimination of 20 Iranian senior military commanders and 11 nuclear scientists. It also led to the widespread destruction of key Iranian military infrastructure, such as 12 air bases, the nation's integrated air defense network, and its primary missile launch facilities. Iran launched hundreds of missiles in response, but most were intercepted by Israeli air defenses or fell short. A few projectiles penetrated the air defense system, but this did not prove to be a decisive factor. The damage inflicted was minimal, with Israeli casualties limited to 27 civilians and one soldier. The conflict was decisively concluded by a United States offensive that bombed three critical nuclear sites.

This action precipitated a negotiated ceasefire, implemented under terms largely dictated by the U.S.–Israeli coalition. The truce was not formalized through any memorandum or structured timetable, but rather emerged as an unwritten and fragile understanding. In the absence of binding guarantees, the ceasefire leaves open the possibility of renewed hostilities, creating space for Israel and the United States to launch future surprise offensives under similar circumstances.

The outcome constituted a crippling blow to the three central pillars of Iran's strategic doctrine: its regional proxy network, ballistic missile arsenal, and nuclear program were all severely damaged, resulting in a near-total loss of its deterrent leverage and a sharp decline in Iran's national standing.

 Victory claim by Khamenei 

Yet, in the wake of this crushing defeat, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei declared, “The Zionist regime, under the blows of the Islamic Republic, has nearly collapsed and been crushed.”

This statement epitomizes the regime's adherence to a "Karbala paradigm," a discursive strategy that transmutes tangible military failure into a narrative of spiritual victory and divine vindication. This is not merely wartime rhetoric; it is a deliberate ideological mechanism designed to project internal resilience, suppress political dissent, and maintain absolute ideological control over a populace confronted with the stark reality of national humiliation.

 The ‘Glorious Loss’ in Sports

Even in sports commentary, the defeat-as-victory narrative prevails. After a 3–0 loss in football,  a commentator proclaimed:

 “The Parsi Stars (ستارگان پارسی) played really well. Though they lost 3–0, they conceded the match with strength and dignity. Even in defeat, their merit stands firm. Congratulations to their bravery.”

Such framing is common in Iranian media: emotional valor replaces factual result, reinforcing a mindset of symbolic superiority despite objective failure.

Once again, nationalistic sentiments take the place of reality; and the loss becomes an “honorary presence” to such an extent that it becomes a laughing stock for the observers.

Composite Narrative of Defeat Culture

The culture of defeat in Iran fuses two seemingly different traditions: the Shi'a martyrdom ethos promoted by the clerical establishment and the inflated heroism of Persian nationalist epics.
In Iran’s state media, relatives are shown saying that the martyr always wished to die and is now enjoying paradise. Far from grief-stricken, they insist there is no reason for sorrow, while officials typically offer congratulations before extending condolences. Grief is replaced by choreographed piety, rendering these scenes emotionally hollow. The same tone pervades adaptations of Ferdowsi’s Shahnameh, where warriors fall with lines such as “The world is a memorial and we are going” or “Let him rest in another palace.” Ferdowsi even praises relatives who suppress lament when a fighter dies for the king. From the clerical slogan “He went in the way of Islam and the Revolution” to the ancient call for silent acceptance, both narratives glorify death with a rehearsed stoicism that masks human feeling and serves the state’s mythmaking.

Collapse of the Nuclear Deal and Economic Crisis (2018–2022)

Following the U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA in 2018, Iran endured crippling economic sanctions, a collapsing currency, and increasing isolation. Nevertheless, Iranian officials portrayed this as a moment of national resilience. Former Foreign Minister Javad Zarif stated:

“The Iranian people once again proved their dignity and resilience. They will not bow to tyranny.”

In reality, living conditions deteriorated drastically—but the state narrative maintained the façade of spiritual resistance and victim-heroism.

III. Political and Psychological Functions

This culture of symbolic victory serves distinct ideological, psychological, and political purposes:

•  National Resilience: Encourages people to endure difficult situations with pride through national resilience

•  Propaganda Shield: It deflects responsibility from the Iranian regime onto external enemies.

•  Ideological Continuity: It links the legitimacy of the Iranian clerical system to distorted Shiite history.

•  False civilizational pride: Maintains a sense of Persian superiority despite real defeats.

IV: From Denial to Responsibility — A Comparative Perspective on Defeat

In the Iranian (Persian-speaking) political and cultural imagination, defeat is rarely acknowledged as failure. Instead, it is often reinterpreted as a form of moral, cultural, or spiritual victory. Throughout modern Iranian history, the loss of territory or sovereignty has frequently been justified as the survival of Shu'ubi Shiite- Persian identity, preserving a sense of national pride while insulating the ruling elite from accountability. This deeply ingrained pattern is not entirely unique to Iran, but its persistence and ideological sophistication are exceptional.

In contrast, the post-World War II experiences of Germany and Japan reveal a markedly different trajectory. Both nations faced existential defeat on a global stage, yet responded with radical self-critique, public acknowledgment of responsibility, and far-reaching structural reforms. Their national narratives shifted away from glorification and denial toward reconstruction and reintegration into the global community. Denial gave way to responsibility—an essential precondition for building democratic institutions and achieving economic revival.

Iran, by contrast, has developed a durable culture of symbolic survival in place of institutional change. Even in contemporary discourse, economic collapse or foreign policy isolation is routinely reframed through the lens of divine approval, martyrdom, or cultural superiority. This strategy preserves internal legitimacy but stifles adaptation, traps society in cycles of blame, and legitimizes authoritarian governance. While Germany and Japan converted defeat into opportunity, Iran remains tethered to an illusion of triumph, unable—or unwilling—to confront the structural roots of its decline.

Conclusion: The Triumph of Illusion over Reality

Iran’s culture of reframing defeat as victory is not a delusional aberration. It is a highly developed ideological system, cultivated over centuries, and now weaponized for modern statecraft. It enables the Iranian regime to maintain internal legitimacy, suppress truth-based dissent, and reassert Shu'ubi Shi‘a-Persian identity in the face of empirical collapse.

But beneath this symbolic triumph lies a more troubling reality: a nation caught in historical denial, structurally weakened, and disconnected from the modern world. Without confronting the truth of its failures, the Iranian state risks repeating them—only on a grander, more destructive scale.

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Appendix:

AI Overview about my Article on google.com:

“What AI Thinks About My Article on the Persian Mindset”

Umud Duzgun's article "The Culture of Defeat Framed as Victory in the Iranian (Persian) Mindset" was published on Medium Website and explores a cultural phenomenon in Iran where a sense of loss or defeat is reframed as a spiritual or moral victory. The article's title suggests it examines how this mindset contributes to collective identity and historical interpretation, potentially linking to themes of martyrdom and resilience within Persian culture. Key Aspects of the Article (based on its title and common themes): Cultural Framing: The article likely discusses how collective experiences of hardship or subjugation are not viewed as simple defeats but are imbued with deeper meaning, such as spiritual growth or prophetic significance. Persian vs. Iranian Mindset: The title uses both "Iranian" and "Persian," suggesting the author may be exploring the historical and cultural roots of this phenomenon, which are deeply tied to the identity of the Persian people. Martyrdom and Resilience: The theme of "defeat framed as victory" is often associated with religious concepts, such as the Shia concept of martyrdom emphasized during the Iranian Revolution, where dying for a cause is seen as a supreme triumph. Historical Context: The article may delve into how major historical events, like the Mongol invasions or foreign interventions, have been interpreted within this framework to maintain a sense of pride and cultural continuity. Modern Relevance: It could also explore how this cultural lens continues to influence contemporary Iranian society, politics, and individual outlooks. interesting-To read the full article, you can visit Medium and search for "Umud Duzgun" or the title of the article. 

AI deep View of the article

 In the article "The Culture of Defeat Framed as Victory in the Iranian (Persian) Mindset" published on Medium, author Umud Duzgun analyzes how Iranians, and specifically Azerbaijani Turks in Iran, reinterpret political or social setbacks as moral triumphs. 

Key concepts from the article

• Reclaiming narrative: Duzgun argues that this reframing is a psychological response to what some perceive as a history of marginalization and political defeats at the hands of the centralized Persian state. In this view, a stolen victory or a state-enforced injustice is not just a loss but a confirmation of the oppressive system. This confirmation, in turn, strengthens group identity and resistance.
• The stolen victory of Tractor FC: Duzgun uses a historical incident involving the Tractor FC football club to illustrate this phenomenon. In 2015, the team was on the verge of winning the league when a series of suspicious events, including false announcements and controversial refereeing, resulted in their loss. Many fans believed the state manipulated the match to prevent an Azerbaijani team from winning, turning the defeat into a "stolen victory". This incident became a powerful symbol of injustice and a rallying cry for the Azerbaijani community, strengthening their sense of identity and opposition to the central government.
• Connecting football to politics: The article draws parallels between the politicized role of Tractor FC in Iran and FC Barcelona in Catalonia. Both teams are seen as symbols of a suppressed regional identity asserting itself against a central government.
• Psychological resistance: Ultimately, Duzgun describes the reframing of defeat as a form of psychological resistance. By converting a political setback into a moral and identity-based victory, the marginalized group reclaims a sense of agency and pride, even when facing a dominant power.
• ----------------------------------

•  Overview of The Culture of Defeat Framed as Victory in the Iranian (Persian) Mindset

  In this article, Umud Duzgun examines a recurring cultural and political phenomenon in Iran: the tendency to reinterpret experiences of loss or injustice as moral or symbolic victories. This mindset, deeply rooted in both Persian historical narratives and Shiʿa religious culture, transforms collective defeats into sources of pride, resilience, and identity.

  Duzgun pays particular attention to the experience of Azerbaijani Turks in Iran, who have long faced systemic marginalization under the centralized Persian state. He argues that when state power manipulates outcomes—whether political, social, or even sporting—these communities respond by reframing the imposed defeat as confirmation of oppression, thereby reinforcing their shared identity and resistance.

  A striking case study is the 2015 “stolen victory” of Tractor FC, when the popular Azerbaijani football club was denied a league championship through controversial refereeing and false match announcements. What might otherwise have been a demoralizing loss became a rallying cry against injustice, symbolizing a “victory stolen by the state.” Duzgun compares this to FC Barcelona’s role in Catalonia, showing how regional football clubs can embody suppressed national identities.

  Ultimately, the article argues that the reframing of defeat as victory is a form of psychological resistance. By converting setbacks into moral triumphs, marginalized groups preserve dignity, reclaim agency, and maintain long-term opposition to central authority. This cultural lens continues to shape Iranian society and politics today, where every “defeat” may, paradoxically, strengthen the resolve for self-determination.

• When AI Summarizes My Work: The Culture of Defeat Framed as Victory in the Iranian (Persian) Mindset

  Recently, I noticed that AI tools like Google’s AI Overview and AI Deep View have begun summarizing my article The Culture of Defeat Framed as Victory in the Iranian (Persian) Mindset, published on Medium. What’s fascinating is how differently they approached it.

  • The AI Overview offered a broad guess based on the title: themes of Persian identity, Shiʿa martyrdom culture, and reframing loss as spiritual victory.

  • The AI Deep View, however, went further. It picked up on my specific case study of Tractor FC’s 2015 “stolen victory”, and connected it directly to my cultural analysis. In doing so, it merged two strands of my work — the historical-cultural mindset and the lived political symbolism of sport — into one coherent thread.

  This unexpected AI synthesis highlighted exactly what I intended: how abstract cultural patterns of “defeat as victory” are embodied in concrete events that shape collective identity and resistance.

   

فرهنگ شکست بازنمایی‌شده

 به‌عنوان پیروزی در ذهنیت ایرانی (فارسی)

َ اومود دوزگون

July /16/2025

 

گفتمان سیاسی و فرهنگی ایران پارسی، پدیده‌ای پایدار را نشان می‌دهد که می‌توان آن را دگرگونی شکست تاریخی به پیروزی نمادین یا اخلاقی نامید. این مکانیسم روان‌شناختی و گفتاری ــ که ریشه‌های عمیقی در اسطوره‌شناسی دینی شیعه و ایدئولوژی ناسیونالیستی فارسی دارد ــ اجازه می‌دهد که شکست‌های ساختاری، به‌عنوان پیروزی‌های غرور ملی کاذب، ایمان، عزت یا برتری اخلاقی بازتفسیر شوند. چه در زمینه‌ی شکست‌های نظامی، انزوای بین‌المللی، یا حتی باخت در مسابقات ورزشی، این ذهنیت شکست-به-پیروزی، همچون ابزار دفاع روانی و کنترل سیاسی عمل می‌کند.

I. دو بنیاد اصلی روایت شکست- به- پیروزی

این روایت بر اساس مبانی تاریخی و ایدئولوژیک است:

۱. حفظ غرور کاذب از طریق بازنگاری تاریخ

تاریخ ایران، بیشتر مملو از شکست‌های نظامی است تا پیروزی‌های قاطع. از دوران باستان تا دوران مدرن، ایران شکست‌های بزرگی را در برابر قدرت‌های خارجی متحمل شده است:

• شکست از اسکندر مقدونی (سده چهارم پیش از میلاد)

• شکست از لشکر عربها (جنگ قادسیه و شکست ساسانیان - سده هفتم میلادی)

• شکست از مغولان (سده سیزدهم)

• شکست  در برابر  امپراتوری عثمانی (جنگ چالدران ۱۵۱۴ میلادی)

• شکست در جنگ‌های ایران و روس (۱۸۰۴–۱۸۱۳ و ۱۸۲۶–۱۸۲۸) 

• شکست توسط نیروهای متفقین؛ بریتانیا و روسیه (اوت ۱۹۴۱):

  الگوی قدرت نظامی شکننده ایران در طول جنگ جهانی دوم به وضوح آشکار شد. پس از آنکه دولت پهلوی با ایدئولوژی پان آریایی لاس زد و از فاشیسم هیتلر حمایت کرد، بریتانیا و اتحاد جماهیر شوروی در اوت ۱۹۴۱ حمله‌ای غافلگیرکننده را آغاز کردند. ارتش رضاشاه ظرف بیست و چهار ساعت فروپاشید. ارتش کنونی ایران هنوز بر همان پایه وفاداری شخصی که توسط رضاشاه بنا نهاده شده بود، استوار است، ساختاری که همچنان شکننده است. هیتلر ایرانیان را به عنوان بخشی از "نژاد آریایی" ستایش کرده بود و در مارس ۱۹۳۵ رضا پهلوی، به توصیه نازی‌ها، رسماً نام کشور در مجامع بین المللی از "پرشیا" را به "ایران" تغییر دادد. تنها چند ماه بعد، در سپتامبر ۱۹۳۵، رژیم نازی قوانین نورنبرگ را تصویب کرد - قوانین بدنام یهودستیزانه‌ای که پیامدهای تاریک‌تر ایدئولوژی مورد علاقه ایران را آشکار می‌کرد. 

این دگرگونی شکست به پیروزی نمادین در ایران، دو کارکرد دارد: حفظ غرور ملی کاذب و فرار از پاسخگویی حاکمان. با وجود شکست‌های مکرر،  تاریخ‌نگاری ایرانی و گفتمان عمومی معمولاً این شکست‌ها را با برچسب‌هایی چون «خیانت»، «دسیسه خارجی» یا «مقاومت اخلاقی» بازتفسیر می‌کند نه بعنوان ناکارآمدی ساختاری یا استراتژیک. هدف این بازنویسی‌ها، دمیدن از غرور کاذب تمدنی حتی در برابر فروپاشی عینی است.

تنها نمونه‌های قابل ذکر از پیروزی نظامی، مربوط به نادرشاه افشار است؛ رهبری تورک‌ تبار که فتوحات قابل توجهی در هند و افغانستان داشت. حتی این موارد نیز بیشتر به رهبری منحصر به فرد او نسبت داده می‌شوند تا به توانمندی ساختاری دولت ایران.

۲. ایدئولوژی شعوبی-شیعی و وارونه‌سازی شکست و پیروزی

در هسته‌ی روان‌شناسی سیاسی ایران، الهیات شیعه‌ی شهادت‌ محور قرار دارد، به‌ویژه واقعه‌ی کربلا در سال ۶۸۰ میلادی. شهادت امام حسین بدست سپاه یزید، بجای آنکه یک شکست تلقی شود، در گفتمان شیعه به فداکاری مقدس و پیروزی معنوی تبدیل شده است. این حادثه، به نماد مقاومت اخلاقی بدل شده و هویت شیعه را تعریف می‌کند.

این چارچوب دینی با بافت شعوبی (نهضت شعوبیه) ترکیب شده است ــ جریانی که پس از شکست از عربها با همسو شدن با شاخه انشعابی در اسلام یعنی شیعیان که مخالف حاکمان اموی بودند ائتلاف کردند تا ملی گرایی تحقیر شده پارسی را بازیابی  و تحت پوشش شیعه تثبیت کنند. در این تلفیق، شیعه تبدیل به ابزاری برای مقدس‌سازی شکست‌های تاریخی (فرهنگی، سیاسی و نظامی) ایران شده، در حالی‌که غرور فارس‌محور را در قالب شهادت و مظلومیت مذهبی حفظ می‌کند.

بنابراین، شکست به یک فضیلت تبدیل می‌شود و شهادت به  نوعی ژست متمدنانه.

 ۳. مبانی پیش از اسلام: شاهنامه و فرهنگ حماسی شکست قهرمانانه

با این حال، مدت‌ها پیش از ظهور تشیع، منطق فرهنگی تبدیل شکست به پیروزی اخلاقی در سنت حماسی فارسی ریشه دوانده بود. شاهنامه فردوسی - اگرچه در دوران اسلامی نوشته شده است - به شدت از روایت‌های اسطوره‌ای-تاریخی پیش از اسلام بهره می‌برد که مرگ قهرمانانه را به عنوان تجلی نهایی شرافت و وفاداری ستایش می‌کنند.

در شاهنامه:

سقوط قهرمانان نه به عنوان شکست، بلکه به عنوان تحقق سرنوشت به تصویر کشیده می‌شود.

مرگ به جای یک فقدان، به یک گذار باوقار تبدیل می‌شود که در ابیاتی مانند موارد زیر به تصویر کشیده شده است:

"جهان یادگار است و ما رفتنی" -(جهان خاطره‌ای است و ما کسانی هستیم که باید برویم)

"چو آرام نگاه میدارد به سرای" - (بگذارید آرام گیرد؛ او به سرای دیگری رفته است)

این اخلاق با اندرزهایی به بستگان داغدار تقویت می‌شود:

«جای این همه بانگ و فریاد نیست» (اینجا جای فریاد و زاری نیست)

معنای آن غیرقابل انکار است:

غم و اندوه نباید نظم سیاسی را مختل کند؛ فداکاری قهرمانانه بهای مورد انتظار وفاداری است.

از طریق این جهان‌بینی حماسی، حتی فروپاشی سلسله‌های افسانه‌ای - مانند سقوط جمشید - یا شکست تاریخی امپراتوری ساسانی، به جای یک فاجعه سیاسی، بخشی از یک روایت اخلاقی کیهانی می‌شود. هویت ایرانی آموخت که شکست امپراتوری را به عنوان گواهی بر استقامت و عظمت فرهنگی بازتفسیر کند.

این سنت پیش از اسلام، یک الگوی روانشناختی قدرتمند ایجاد کرد. این سنت به شهادت‌شناسی شیعی بعدی - و در نهایت به سنتز ایدئولوژیک شیعه-شعوبی - اجازه داد تا شکست سیاسی را مقدس جلوه دهند، فاجعه ملی را به پیروزی اخلاقی ارتقا دهند و فروپاشی تاریخی را به روایتی از فضیلت تمدنی تبدیل کنند.

II. تجلیات معاصر: بازنمایی باخت به‌عنوان پیروزی

این ساختار فکری، صرفاً گذشته‌نگر نیست بلکه در گفتمان امروز ایران حضوری فعال دارد؛ چه در سیاست خارجی، چه رسانه‌ها، چه فرهنگ عمومی.

 شکست استراتژیک ایران: پیامدهای جنگ دوازده روزه (۲۳خرداد تا ۰۳ تیر ۱۴۰۴) 

 یک سری حملات هدفمند اسرائیل علیه نیروهای تحت حمایت ایران در سراسر خاورمیانه، شبکه نیابتی ایران را به شدت تضعیف کرد و زمینه را برای یک رویارویی نظامی مستقیم فراهم کرد. این تشدید تنش در جنگ دوازده روزه (۲۳خرداد تا ۰۳ تیر ۱۴۰۴) به اوج خود رسید زمانیکه ایران مورد تهاجم غافلگیرانه و شدید اسرائیل و ایالات متحده قرا گرفت. این جنگ منجر به بیش از ۱۱۰۰ تلفات، از جمله حذف ۲۰ فرمانده ارشد نظامی ایران و ۱۱ دانشمند هسته‌ای شد. همچنین منجر به تخریب گسترده زیرساخت‌های کلیدی نظامی ایران، مانند ۱۲ پایگاه هوایی، شبکه یکپارچه پدافند هوایی کشور و تأسیسات اصلی پرتاب موشک آن شد. ایران در پاسخ صدها موشک شلیک کرد، اما اکثر آنها توسط پدافند اسرائیل رهگیری یا به هدف نرسیدند. چند پرتابه به سیستم پدافند هوایی نفوذ کردند، اما این عامل تعیین‌کننده‌ای نبود. خسارات وارده حداقل بود و تلفات اسرائیل به ۲۷ غیرنظامی و یک سرباز محدود شد. این درگیری با حمله ایالات متحده که سه سایت هسته‌ای حیاتی را بمباران کرد، به طور قطعی پایان یافت.»

 این جنگ منجر به کشته شدن بیش از ۱۱۰۰ نفر، از جمله حذف ۲۰ فرمانده ارشد نظامی ایران و ۱۱ دانشمند هسته‌ای شد. همچنین منجر به تخریب گسترده زیرساخت‌های کلیدی نظامی ایران، از جمله ۱۲ پایگاه هوایی، شبکه یکپارچه پدافند هوایی کشور و تأسیسات اصلی پرتاب موشک آن شد. ایران در پاسخ صدها موشک شلیک کرد، اما بیشتر آنها توسط اسرائیل رهگیری  یا به هدف  نرسیدند.. تعداد کمی از آن موشک ها از سیستم دفاع هوایی عبور کردند، اما این عامل تعیین‌کننده‌ای نبود. خسارات وارده حداقل بود و تلفات اسرائیل به ۲۷ غیرنظامی و یک سرباز محدود شد. این درگیری با حمله ایالات متحده که سه سایت هسته‌ای حیاتی را بمباران کرد، به طور قطعی پایان یافت.

این اقدام منجر به آتش‌بس مذاکره شده‌ای شد که تحت شرایطی که عمدتاً توسط ائتلاف ایالات متحده و اسرائیل دیکته شده بود، اجرا شد. این آتش‌بس از طریق هیچ تفاهم‌نامه یا جدول زمانی ساختاریافته‌ای رسمیت نیافت، بلکه به عنوان یک تفاهم نانوشته و شکننده پدیدار شد. در غیاب ضمانت‌های الزام‌آور، این آتش‌بس احتمال تجدید خصومت‌ها را باز می‌گذارد و فضایی را برای اسرائیل و ایالات متحده ایجاد می‌کند تا در شرایط مشابه، حملات غافلگیرکننده را در آینده آغاز کنند.

نتیجه این جنگ، ضربه‌ای فلج‌کننده به سه ستون اصلی دکترین استراتژیک ایران بود: شبکه نیابتی منطقه‌ای که هیچگونه حرکتی از خود نشان ندادند، زرادخانه موشک‌های بالستیک و برنامه هسته‌ای آن، همگی به شدت آسیب دیدند و این منجر به از دست رفتن تقریباً کامل اهرم بازدارندگی و کاهش شدید جایگاه ملی ایران شد.

ادعای پیروزی از سوی خامنه‌ای

با این‌حال، رهبر آیران علی خامنه‌ای اعلام کرد:

«رژیم صهیونیستی زیر ضربات جمهوری اسلامی تقریباً فروپاشیده و در حال نابودی است.»

این نمونه‌ی بارز از آن منطق پوشالی است: شکست عینی به‌عنوان پیروزی ملی-الهی بازتفسیر می‌شود.

  مفسران ورزشی و باختِ افتخارآمیز در ورزش

همین ذهنیت در مسابقات ورزشی مانند فوتبال، کشتی، والیبال و غیره نیز رایج است. پس از باخت ۳–۰ تیم ملی فوتبال، مفسر تلویزیونی گفت:

«ستارگان پارسی عالی بازی کردند. با اینکه ۳ گل خوردند، ولی با اقتدار  و عزت بازی را واگذار کردند. بچه های ما واقعا خوب جنگیدند تبریک میگم به غیرتشون.»

باز هم، احساسات ملی‌گرایانه جای واقعیت را می‌گیرند؛ و باخت، به «حضور افتخارآمیز» تبدیل می‌شود که مایه تمسخر ناظران میشود.

روایت ترکیبی از فرهنگ شکست

فرهنگ شکست در ایران دو سُنت به ظاهر متفاوت را در هم می‌آمیزد: روحیه شهادت‌طلبی شیعه که توسط نهاد روحانیت ترویج می‌شود و قهرمانی اغراق‌آمیز حماسه‌های ملی‌گرایانه فارسی که در کتابهای درسی، شعر، ادبیات، فیلم ها و سریالهای فارسی توسط میدیای دولتی و غیر دولتی ترویج میشود. برای مثال در رسانه‌های دولتی ایران، بستگان قربانیان را در حال گفتن این جمله نشان میدهند که شهید همیشه آرزوی مرگ داشت و اکنون از بهشت ​​لذت می‌برد. آنها به دور از غم و اندوه، اصرار دارند که دلیلی برای غم و اندوه وجود ندارد، مقامات دولتی هم معمولاً قبل از تسلیت، تبریک می‌گویند. بنابراین، غم و اندوه با تقوای طراحی شده جایگزین می‌شود و این صحنه‌ها را از نظر احساسی توخالی می‌کند. همین لحن در اقتباس‌های شاهنامه فردوسی نیز موج می‌زند، جایی که جنگجویان با ابیاتی مانند "جهان یادگار است و ما می‌رویم" یا "بگذارید در سرای دیگری آرام گیرند" دسته دسته به خاک می‌افتند.  فردوسی حتی بستگانی را می ستاید که وقتی جنگجویی برای شاه می میرد، ناله را فرو می نشانند. از شعار روحانیت «او در راه اسلام و انقلاب رفت» گرفته تا فراخوان باستانی برای پذیرش خاموش، هر دو روایت، مرگ را با نوعی رواقی‌گریِ تمرین‌شده (تحمل رنج) ستایش می‌کنند که احساسات انسانی را پنهان می‌کند و در خدمتافسانه‌پردازی  حکومت قرار میدهد و مرگ را تجلیل می‌کنند.   

شکست برجام و بحران اقتصادی (۲۰۱۸–۲۰۲۲)

پس از خروج آمریکا از توافق هسته‌ای، ایران با تحریم‌های سنگین، سقوط ریال، و انزوای دیپلماتیک مواجه شد. اما مقامات ایران، آن را پیروزی اخلاقی جلوه دادند. محمدجواد ظریف گفت:

«مردم ایران دوباره عزت و مقاومت خود را اثبات کردند. آن‌ها زیر بار ظلم نخواهند رفت.»

در حالی‌که اقتصاد کشور در حال فروپاشی بود، روایت حاکمیت همان روایت «مظلومِ قهرمان» بود.

III. کارکردهای روانی و سیاسی این روایت

ذهنیت شکست -به- پیروزی در ایران، دارای عملکردهای چندگانه است:

•  تاب‌آوری ملی: مردم را به تحمل شرایط سخت با غرور تشویق می‌کند.

•  سپر تبلیغاتی: مسئولیت را از  رژیم حاکم سلب و متوجه دشمن خارجی می‌سازد.

•  تداوم ایدئولوژیک: مشروعیت نظام روحانیت را با تاریخ تحریف شده شیعه پیوند می‌زند.

•  غرور کاذب تمدنی: حس برتری فرهنگی فارسی را حفظ می‌کند، حتی در شکست‌های واقعی.

IV: از انکار تا مسئولیت‌پذیری - نگاهی تطبیقی به شکست

در تصور سیاسی و فرهنگی ایرانیان (فارسی‌زبان)، شکست به ندرت به عنوان شکست پذیرفته می‌شود. در عوض، اغلب به عنوان نوعی پیروزی اخلاقی، فرهنگی یا معنوی تفسیر می‌شود. در طول تاریخ مدرن ایران، از دست دادن قلمرو یا حاکمیت اغلب به عنوان بقای هویت شعوبی شیعه - پارسی توجیه شده است که حس غرور کاذب ملی را حفظ می‌کند و در عین حال نخبگان حاکم را از پاسخگویی مصون می‌دارد. این الگوی عمیقاً ریشه‌دار کاملاً منحصر به ایران نیست، اما تداوم و پیچیدگی ایدئولوژیک آن استثنایی است.

در مقایسه با ایران، تجربیات پس از جنگ جهانی دوم آلمان و ژاپن مسیر کاملاً متفاوتی را نشان می‌دهد. هر دو ملت با شکست وجودی در صحنه جهانی روبرو شدند، اما با خود انتقادی رادیکال، اذعان عمومی به مسئولیت‌پذیری و اصلاحات ساختاری گسترده به آن پاسخ دادند. روایت‌های ملی آنها از تجلیل و انکار به سمت بازسازی و ادغام مجدد در جامعه جهانی تغییر یافت. انکار جای خود را به مسئولیت‌پذیری داد - پیش‌شرط ضروری برای ایجاد نهادهای دموکراتیک و دستیابی به احیای اقتصادی.

در مقابل، ایران به جای تغییر نهادی، فرهنگ پایداری از بقای نمادین را توسعه داده است. حتی در گفتمان معاصر، فروپاشی اقتصادی یا انزوای سیاست خارجی به طور معمول از دریچه تأیید الهی، شهادت یا برتری فرهنگی پارسی بازتعریف می‌شود. این استراتژی مشروعیت داخلی را حفظ می‌کند اما سازگاری را سرکوب می‌کند، جامعه را در چرخه‌های سرزنش گرفتار می‌کند و به حکومت استبدادی مشروعیت می‌بخشد. در حالی که آلمان و ژاپن شکست را به فرصت تبدیل کردند، ایران همچنان در توهم پیروزی گرفتار است و قادر - یا مایل - به مقابله با ریشه‌های ساختاری زوال خود نیست.

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فرهنگ شکست‌هایی که به‌عنوان پیروزی بازنمایی می‌شوند، نوعی فریب ذهنی یا خطای ساده نیست. بلکه یک سیستم ایدئولوژیک پیچیده، ساخته‌شده در بستر تاریخ، دین، و ملی‌گرایی است. از سیاست خارجی گرفته تا جنگ و فرهنگ عامه، این چارچوب به حکومت اجازه می‌دهد مشروعیت از دست داده خود را بازسازی کرده، اعتراض‌ها را سرکوب کند، و در برابر زوال مادی و معنوی همه جانبه، هویت خود را بازآفرینی نماید.

اما پشت این پیروزی‌های ساختگی و نمادین، حقیقتی تلخ نهفته است: ملتی گرفتار در انکار تاریخی، ناتوان از اصلاح ساختارها، و منزوی از دنیای مدرن. تا زمانی‌که با واقعیت شکست‌ها روبه‌رو نشود، ایران همچنان در دایره‌ی تکرار شکست‌های بزرگ‌تری خواهد چرخید.